Global markets are in suspense as traders await President Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite threats from the U.S., Tehran has refused to comply, leaving investors wary of potential military action. Oil prices have fluctuated, with Brent crude initially rising above $111 per barrel before paring gains. U.S. WTI crude is hovering around $113 per barrel after briefly exceeding $116.
Equities started cautiously, with Asian indexes mostly flat, despite an initial boost from Samsung Electronics’ record-breaking quarterly profit forecast. European shares saw gains after the open, while major U.S. indexes rose on Monday, buoyed by reports of ongoing ceasefire discussions. Samsung Electronics, the world’s largest memory chipmaker, announced an estimated operating profit of 57.2 trillion won for the January-March period. This represents a significant jump from 6.69 trillion won a year earlier.
The greenback has dipped slightly but remains firm, with the dollar index near 100 after reaching its highest level since May 2025 last week. The yen continues to weaken, trading near 160 per dollar. Recent U.S. macro signals add complexity, with the Institute for Supply Management reporting slower services sector growth and rising input prices in March. This suggests potential inflationary pressures amid the ongoing conflict.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of higher prices and slower global growth. Investors are focused on whether Trump’s deadline will lead to an escalation or de-escalation of the conflict. Upcoming events to watch include U.S. February durable goods data, a 3-year note auction, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. The market’s direction hinges on geopolitical developments and key economic indicators.
