Amundi, a major European asset manager, has stated that the recent spike in oil and gas prices stemming from the Iran crisis is likely a temporary shock with limited consequences for global economic growth and inflation. Amundi is one of the world’s leading asset management companies, offering a range of investment solutions to individuals, institutions and corporations. The firm manages assets across various investment strategies, including equities, fixed income, and real estate.
According to Amundi chief strategist Monica Defend, the current situation should be viewed as a transient oil shock that warrants only modest concern regarding its influence on growth and inflation. Defend emphasised that, beyond short-term tactical adjustments, maintaining a focus on underlying fundamental economic factors remains paramount from a long-term perspective. The Middle East is a significant player in global energy markets, accounting for approximately 31 per cent of global oil production and 18 per cent of global gas production.
Defend also noted that the economic consequences are largely dependent on the length and intensity of any disruption to supply. She explained that while some oil and gas exporters may potentially benefit from rising prices, importing nations could face economic setbacks. It is estimated that nearly 90 per cent of crude oil destined for Asia passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical chokepoint.
Defend suggested that a brief conflict resulting in limited disruption could lead to a temporary surge in oil prices, but with a contained impact on global growth and inflation. She added that the data-dependent approach currently favoured by central banks will probably lead to a delay in policy actions as they carefully evaluate the evolving growth-inflation dynamic in light of recent events.
