Crude oil prices surged overnight, reaching a two-month high as tensions surrounding Iran escalated. President Trump cancelled planned meetings with Iranian officials and voiced support for continued demonstrations against the regime, hinting at potential US intervention. These developments have heightened concerns about disruptions to Iran’s energy sector. ANZ analysts estimate that disruptions could threaten up to 3.5 million barrels per day of supply, with nearly 2 million barrels per day destined for international markets. This situation is further compounded by a newly imposed 2 per cent US tariff on countries conducting business with Tehran.
According to ANZ, the renewed geopolitical risks are adding pressure to an already constrained supply landscape. Bad weather conditions, drone attacks, and ongoing maintenance issues have significantly disrupted Kazakh exports. Loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal have decreased by almost half, falling to approximately 900,000 barrels per day. These factors collectively contribute to the upward pressure on crude oil prices.
The benchmark Brent Crude Oil reflected these market dynamics, trading up by 2.3 per cent to reach $US65.35 per barrel. Market participants are closely monitoring the geopolitical situation and supply-side factors, with any further escalation likely to exert additional upward pressure on prices in the short term.
