Macquarie’s team of analysts has demonstrated considerable courage by publicly releasing non-consensus calls on Australian and New Zealand listed companies. This initiative comes at a challenging time, marked by a pervasive passive investing environment, superannuation fund giants aligning with market indices, and numerous profit warnings influenced by geopolitical tensions. The new quarterly series highlights stocks where Macquarie believes the market has misread the broader profit picture, potentially overlooking internal company improvements, earnings drivers, evolving industry structures, or longer-term shifts.
Several companies where Macquarie sees “upside risk” are based on robust self-help plans. Analyst Rob Stein’s forecasts for Fortescue’s 2026-2028 earnings are up to 6 per cent above consensus, driven by cost efficiencies from electrification. Fortescue Metals Group is a leading global iron ore company. Similarly, at James Hardie, a global manufacturer of fibre cement building materials, Peter Steyn’s 2028 underlying profit forecast is 13.1 per cent above consensus due to acquisition integration. Conversely, Carlos Cacho anticipates ANZ’s 2026-2028 earnings to be 4-6 per cent lower than expectations due to disruption from its cost-cutting program.
Other key calls from Macquarie analysts span various sectors and factors. Caleb Wheatley suggests investors are underestimating the boost to Chemist Warehouse-owner Sigma Pharmaceuticals from booming GLP-1 drug sales, projecting 2027 earnings before interest and tax 8 per cent above market. Andrew Buncombe expresses concern for NIB Holdings, with his 2027 operating profit forecast almost 19 per cent below consensus, citing risks from falling student visa numbers and NDIS scrutiny. Property analyst David Pobucky also predicts interest rate rises will negatively impact Mirvac and Stockland. Ian Myles argues pipeline operator APA Group warrants a reduced risk premium as gas is recognised as a transition fuel.
