Goldman Sachs has increased its economic growth forecasts for China, citing the nation’s commitment to boosting manufacturing competitiveness and exports. The firm highlighted the recent approval of a new five-year economic plan and the trade truce between China and the US as key factors driving this revised outlook. This indicates confidence in the Chinese leadership’s economic strategy.
Goldman Sachs now projects Chinese export volumes to grow by 5-6 per cent annually, driven by gains in global market share. This expansion is expected to contribute significantly to China’s overall economic growth in the coming years. Consequently, the firm has raised its real GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 4.9 per cent to 5.0 per cent, citing the government’s commitment to achieving its economic targets and a recent acceleration in government spending.
Looking further ahead, Goldman Sachs has also revised upwards its real GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, increasing them to 4.8 per cent and 4.7 per cent respectively, from previous estimates of 4.3 per cent and 4.0 per cent. These adjustments are primarily attributed to stronger export growth expectations. It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs’ projections for 2026 and 2027 are notably above market consensus, suggesting a more optimistic outlook on China’s export-driven economic expansion.
Goldman Sachs is a leading global investment bank that provides a range of financial services to corporations, institutions, and governments. The company advises on mergers and acquisitions, underwrites securities offerings, and manages investments for clients worldwide.
