AUD/USD: 0.7765 EUR/USD: 1.1275Despite the breakdown of negotiations between Greece and the EU, the Euro remains resilient and even a bit higher today, with the US$ not helped by some soft US data, coming ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Meeting. Today will be another active session today, commencing with the RBA Minutes, which are likely to be dovish and may put the Aud under some pressure, while later on, Europe gets to see the UK CPI, PPI and RPI, the German CPI, German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey and EU Unemployment. From the US we get the Building Permits and Housing Starts. All eyes will be on Greece though, as it approaches the June 30 deadline and the rapidly increasing chance of a default and possible exit from the EU.
The Aud is slightly stronger today, sitting towards the top end of its 0.7703/76 range, underpinned by the soft US data which has kept the US$ under some pressure.
The market is now likely to sit fairly quietly until the release of the RBA Minutes, which are likely to be dovish and to again lament the elevated level of the Aud although the market is now fairly immune to this and may sit on its hands while waiting for tomorrow’s FOMC Meeting.
Technically there is little change. Above today’s high, the topside will find further offers at 0.7785 and then at 0.7800. Above here would revisit the 3 June high at 0.7818, beyond which will see sellers at the Fibo pivots at 0.7845 and 0.7880 although this looks unlikely in the near term.
The downside will see bids at 0.7750 (minor) and then at 0.7730 (100 HMA) and at 0.7705 (200 HMA). A break of 0.7700 could see a move back to 0.7670, but which looks unlikely, although if wrong further bids would arrive at 0.7630 and at 0.7600.
Just keep an eye on the hourly charts which show the possibility of a bull flag that would have an objective of somewhere around 0.7850, if it were to come about.
Economic data highlights will include:
New Vehicle Sales, RBA Minutes.
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxchartsdaily.com
