AUD/USD: 0.8130EUR/USD: 1.2350It has been a very hectic session following the FOMC outcome. Despite a fairly benign outlook from the Fed, who replaced the phrase" considerable time" with need for "patience" in their forward guidance, the dollar is generally a fair bit stronger at the time of writing following Janet Yellen's press conference. More choppy trade looks to be in store in the session ahead and a fairly nimble stance is required as liquidity becomes increasingly thin. Later on we get the German IFO, US Flash Services/Composite PMI’s Philly Fed Mfg Survey
Having broken down through 0.8200 yesterday to meet the 0.8145 objective in reaching a low of 0.8139, the Aud then rebounded but was unable to reach 0.8200 again, and since the FOMC outcome it was fallen to a new trend low of 0.8106 and is currently hanging on precariously above the lows.
Technically, a break of 0.8100 would mean a run lower to test the May 2010 lows at 0.8066 and below that here is not too much to hold it above 0.8000 and it looks as though the RBA are, slowly but surely, going to get their wish for the Aud to head towards 0.7500!
The topside currently looks capped by 0.8150, above which could see a squeeze towards 0.8200 although this looks unlikely today. If wrong the 100 HMA at 0.8225 should provide ample cover.
The short term charts are showing some potential bullish divergence, so we should be prepared for a bit of a short squeeze, although the longer term strategy remains unchanged in looking for a lower Aud, so looking to sell short term rallies remains the plan.
Economic data highlights will include:
RBA Quarterly Bulletin, China House Price Index
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxchartsdaily.com
