AUD/USD: 0.8780EUR/USD: 1.2645The dollar is generally firmer again today ahead of the global manufacturing PMI's, which will include various EU members, but kicking off today with the HSBC China figure. Cable is soft following the dovish BOE Minutes. Elsewhere WTI took another hit after the inventories report rose three times more than market expectations. PMI's aside, today sees NZ CPI (shortly), Australian Business Confidence/Conditions and UK Retail Sales. Later on, from the US, we will see some regional Fed activity data and the weekly jobless claims.
A choppy day following the release of the Q3 CPI, saw the Aud make a quick squeeze to 0.8815 in the US, before heading lower once again to currently sit pretty much unchanged from yesterday’s Asian close at 0.8780. More of the same could be in store, with today’s action to be driven, initially by a Glen Stevens speech, and then later by the NAB Business Confidence/Conditions and the HSBC China Flash Mfg-PMI.
Technically there is little change as the sideways action continues, and another day largely confined to 0.8710/0.8810 would not surprise.
If the data is generally soft, we could see another run, below the 200 HMA (0.8760), to yesterday’s spike low following the CPI, at 0.8745. Below there would head towards Friday’s lows around 0.8730 and then to 0.8700. I doubt that we are heading below here today unless the HSBC data is overly weak, but if wrong, would hint at a run towards last week’s lows at 0.8685, 0.8675 and below there at 0.8651.
On the topside, 0.8800 will once again see sellers ahead of the recent highs at 0.8815, 0.8832 and 0.8860 although I can’t see it up here today and would be surprised to see it much above 0.8800.
It seems to me that the Aud has had plenty of attempts to head above 0.8800, but being unable to sustain the gains, what cannot go up, must eventually go down. Today may not be the day, but I still prefer to sell into strength and to trade from the short side.
Economic data highlights will include:
RBA Glen Stevens Speech, NAB Business Confidence/Conditions, HSBC China Flash Mfg-PMI.
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxchartsdaily.com
