AUD/USD: 0.8775EUR/USD: 1.2685The dollar found its legs again today after some poor German data and some negative comments from Mario Draghi sent the Euro lower, taking the other majors with it. The real movers were the equities markets though which continue trade in very volatile fashion while oil also sold off sharply. With little news due today, it may be a choppy but rather directionless end to the week, but further US$ strength/equity weakness would not surprise.
Despite the poor jobs data, the Aud pushed up to 0.8898 while the US$ remained under pressure today, but has since turned lower once the US$ found its legs again, sending the Aud back down to where it currently sits near the session lows of 0.8764.
The Aud is currently sitting right on the 100/200 HMA’s, and with the hourlies once again pointing lower a retest of yesterday’s low at 0.8730 would not really surprise. Below there would again look at 0.8700 and then head towards 0.8660 and possibly to the 0.8654 trend low. I don’t really see it down here today, as there is little data out (although watch out for New China Loans), and we may well spend the day consolidating, but with global equity markets lower once again, the downside may come into play as investors exit risk assets, including the Aud.
Further out, a break of 0.8642 and the July 2013 low of 0.8632 would suggest a test of 0.8600, below which there is little to suggest that the Aud will pull up ahead of the 50% pivot of the long term rally from 0.6006/1.1082, at 0.8538.
On the topside, 0.8800 will again see sellers and the daily MACD’s still point a corrective recovery in the Aud, so there is a chance that over the next few days we could once again head to the topside. I think rallies will be temporary though and should be sold into. Above 0.8800, look for further interest at 0.8830, 0.8850 and then at the session highs, where there will be plenty of interest to sell at 0.8900.
Economic data highlights will include:
Home Loans, China New Loans
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxchartsdaily.com
