AUD/USD: 0.9370EUR/USD: 1.3815Cable was the main mover today after more solid UK data, but elsewhere the currency markets were fairly rangebound as liquidity rapidly diminishes ahead of Easter. It looks as though today could be similar and it will be mostly position squaring that drives market direction. There will be a bit of data out later on, which could provide some interest, with the highlights being the German PPI and Philly Fed manufacturing survey. Australia gets the NAB Business Confidence and New Vehicle Sales, while in Japan, BOJ Governor Kuroda will be speaking. Have a good Easter.
Comments from Janet Yellen, outlining the case for continued low US interest rates, kept the dollar under some pressure today, although it has traded a fairly tight 50 point range against the Euro as traders wind back for Easter and it looks as though we could be in for something fairly similar in the coming session.
The 4 hour indicators are flat and give little hint of any move although the hourlies do point mildly lower. The 100/200 HMA’s are at 1.3840/1.3805 and it could well be that these largely contain it, but if the hourlies are correct, then below 1.3800 (daily Tenkan; 1.3796) would head back to the recent low at 1.3788 (1.3790:50% pivot of 1.3672/1.3905). Below there would suggest a decline towards 1.3760 (61.8%/ daily cloud top) and then to 1.3727 (76.4%) and 1.3715 (100 DMA) although that may be a step too far today.
On the topside, back above the session high of 1.3850 would head towards 1.3885, where the gap from the Monday open still needs filling, beyond which 1.3905, the recent rally high will see good sellers.
I would not be too involved today as it will be a session of position squaring, with very few wanting to run risk, particularly with the situation in the Ukraine looking very tenuous.
Economic data highlights will in:
German PPI, EU current Account, US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxcharts.com.au
