AUD/USD: 0.9385EUR/USD: 1.3850The FOMC minutes contained no timeline as to when to expect a rate hike, which, following Janet Yellen's "6 month" comment at the press conference after the meeting, was enough for the market to sell the dollar across the board. It looks as though it could stay under pressure, although there is plenty of data out today to provide some volatility. Australian unemployment numbers will get the ball rolling ahead of the Chinese trade data, and then later in the day sees the BOE I/R decision and the ECB Monthly Report.
The Aud continues to march higher, today reaching 0.9398, taking out the Fibo resistance at 0.9387 (38.2% of 1.0582/0.8660) in the process, but so far failing just ahead of the 0.9400 option barriers. We have currently come back to sit right on this level and will do so until the release of the Jobs numbers later this morning, which will be closely followed by the Chinese Trade data (exp +$1.8 bio,Exports +4.8 bio, Imports +3.9 bio).
If the employment numbers are solid (exp +5K, although the range is -25K/+25K, and unemployment @ 6.1%) then the Aud is likely to take out the barrier and beyond 0.9400, there is not too much to stop it heading towards the 19 Nov high at 0.9448 and 0.9450 (weekly cloud base), which should prove decent resistance. Beyond 0.9450 would hint at a run up to 0.9494 (76.4% of 0.9757/0.8660) although I suspect it is too early for this, but the longer term strategy of looking for a run towards the SHS target at 0.9580 remains intact.
If the data is soft, the Aud is going to run out of steam right here and would head back towards minor support at around 0.9330/40, beyond which would see a drop back to the rising trend support at 0.,9300 (100 HMA). Below here would see a deeper correction towards the 200 HMA at 0.9265 and then to the Fibo support at 0.9245 (38.2% of 0.8995/0.9365).
While I remain bullish on the Aud, the 4 hour charts now show some minor bearish divergence and I think I would be a bit careful at these levels. It would not surprise me to see the Aud suffer a bit of a setback, but overall I think we need to leave room to buy into dips.
Economic data highlights will include:
Employment, China Trade Balance
Jim LanglandsFX Charts www.fxcharts.com.au
