AUD/USD: 0.9000EUR/USD: 1.3715Today looks likely to be fairly quiet with little data due, although the BOJ minutes may provide some interest, as could the UK Retail Sales and US existing home sales later in the day. The Euro initially drifted lower today after the generally mixed PMI readings, with the EU manufacturing PMI falling to 53 (exp 54.3), while the services figure rose to 51.7 but missed consensus of 51.9. Weaker than expected French inflation data did not help the cause of the Euro, by reigniting concerns of deflation in the EU, nor did soft EU Consumer Confidence.
In the US, the Markit manufacturing PMI figure came in at 56.7 (expected; 53.0) for the largest rise in 4 years which helped to underpin the dollar, while the jobless claims and the inflation number (1.6%yy) came in pretty much as expected. I can’t see how the Markit PMI can be correct given the recent run of data, but that is what they reported. On the other side of the coin, the February Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index today reported its lowest reading in a year (-6.3 versus expectation of +8). Confused? Me too!
Technically the Euro drifted down to the support which has so far held, in touching a low of 1.3685 (50% pivot of 1.3476/1.3772). This area should continue to see decent buyers again today if we see it, with the 200 HMA at 1.3683, the weekly tenkan at 1.3680, the top of the daily cloud/daily tenkan at 1.3670 and Fibo support at 1.3660 (38.2% of 1.3476/1.3772) all likely to see buyers. Given the lack of economic data today I don’t really see it under 1.3680, but if wrong, look for an acceleration towards 1.3625.
The 4 hour indicators are pointing lower, so I suspect the upside is a bit limited today as well, and sellers should arrive at 1.3725 (100 HMA) and then 1.3730/40 and at 1.3750 and 1.3770.
Use 1.3685/1.3750 as a guide in what may be a quiet session heading into the weekend.
Economic data highlights will include:
EU Commission Economic Growth Forecasts, US Existing Home Sales.
Jim LanglandsFX Charts PL
