China’s burgeoning wave of artificial intelligence hardware exports presents a crucial hedge against what has been dubbed Wall Street’s “dangerously circular” AI trade, according to Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group. deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and asset management organisations, and Green’s comments arrive as new analysis forecasts Chinese exporters commanding a combined addressable market of between $12 billion and $212 billion by 2030, offering investors a genuine alternative to the self-financing loops he has been flagging.
Green has repeatedly warned that a significant portion of the AI trade in the United States involves capital circulating within a tight group of suppliers, lenders, and customers, often being booked as new growth with each transaction. He describes this as a supplier investing in a customer, who then uses that investment to purchase the supplier’s hardware, with the same funds repeatedly counted as fresh revenue. In stark contrast, China’s export momentum is characterised by hardware being shipped to real ports and installed on factory floors overseas, generating demand verifiable through customs data rather than vendor-financing footnotes.
This marks China’s “third global export era,” shifting from solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles towards AI-enabled industrial hardware, data-centre equipment, and automated production systems. With unresolved US trade restrictions, Chinese manufacturers are strategically routing growth through European and Southeast Asian markets. Examples include a Shenzhen-listed automation specialist with a buy rating and over 50% upside potential as Europe becomes a key battleground, and a Hong Kong-listed robotics firm projected to triple its Southeast Asian market share by 2030 within a $20 billion regional opportunity. The sheer scale is evident; one Chinese humanoid robot maker shipped over 5,500 units last year, significantly outpacing leading American rivals.
Green argues that diversification is now urgent for portfolios heavily weighted in the circularly financed segments of the American AI trade. He contends that investors solely exposed to the US AI complex are vulnerable to fragile financing structures. Adding exposure to genuine overseas order books across robotics, automation, and industrial hardware provides crucial distance from that circularity. The upcoming World Robot Conference in Beijing from August 19 to 23, featuring over 300 exhibitors and more than 150 new products, will offer a real-time signal of which Chinese exporters are converting this momentum into contracted overseas revenue.
