GrainCorp is anticipated to face significant downgrades after releasing a “poor” financial year 2026 guidance, according to Morgans research analyst Belinda Moore. Moore anticipates a heavy sell-off of the stock following the announcement. GrainCorp is an Australian agribusiness and food processing company, operating in the grains and edible oils sectors. The company handles the storage, processing, and marketing of grains and oilseeds.
Moore highlighted that GrainCorp’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) guidance of $200 million to $240 million fell considerably short of market expectations. The consensus forecast was approximately $306 million, while Morgans’ own forecast stood at $290 million. Profit guidance of $20 million to $50 million also missed consensus estimates by a substantial margin.
The analyst attributed the revised guidance to low grain prices, which are discouraging farmers from selling. This is leading to lower-quality grain bypassing GrainCorp’s network. Additionally, trading margins are under pressure as Australian grain trades at a premium compared to US supply, further impacting the company’s financial outlook.
Following the release of the updated guidance, shares in GrainCorp experienced a sharp decline. Shares were last down by 14.4 per cent, reflecting investor concern over the company’s future performance.
