Origin Energy’s APLNG upstream fields are stabilising, according to Citi analyst Tom Wallington. Natural declines in the fields are largely offset by reduced maintenance and improved reliability. Origin Energy is an Australian energy company focused on power generation and energy retailing. It explores, develops, and produces natural gas, as well as generates and sells electricity.
Wallington noted that APLNG delivered a slight beat in production and sales compared to expectations. Revenue remained broadly in line with consensus, despite slightly softer realised pricing. However, the company’s Energy Markets segment underperformed forecasts. This was due to weaker electricity and gas sales attributed to mild weather conditions, high rooftop solar output, and fewer outages, which reduced internal generation needs.
Furthermore, the recent extension of the Eraring power station to April 2029 is expected to have a positive financial impact. It will lower depreciation expenses by approximately A$20 million in fiscal year 2025. This extension provides continued operational stability for Origin Energy’s electricity generation capabilities.
Wallington anticipates a neutral market reaction to these developments. The stronger performance of APLNG is expected to be counteracted by softer distributions and less volatile electricity markets. These factors combined suggest a balanced outlook for Origin Energy in the near term, reflecting both positive and negative influences on its overall performance.
