Morningstar DBRS anticipates that 2026 will be a significant year for mining mergers and acquisitions, with the proposed Rio Tinto-Glencore tie-up potentially sparking a global consolidation wave. The deal, poised to be the largest in mining history, aligns with producers seeking scale, growth pipelines, and future-focused metals amidst strong commodity prices and balance sheets. Morningstar DBRS is an independent credit ratings business that serves the needs of investors. Morningstar DBRS provides timely and insightful research and opinion regarding credit risk.
Rio Tinto has until February 5 to make a formal offer for Glencore under UK takeover regulations. Morningstar DBRS noted that the merged entity would create a US$260 billion mining giant, surpassing BHP. This development may put pressure on BHP, which has had four unsuccessful attempts at Anglo American. Peers such as Southern Copper, Vale, Freeport-McMoRan, and major Chinese miners may also feel compelled to act to avoid being left behind.
According to Morningstar DBRS, the Rio Tinto and Glencore merger will likely increase pressure on BHP to complete its own mega-merger. They expect BHP to be aggressive in pursuing acquisitions throughout 2026. Morningstar DBRS views this deal activity as both defensive and strategic. Stronger balance sheets, scarce copper deposits, and record gold prices have created an opportunity for significant moves rather than incremental deals.
The report also suggests that portfolio rationalisation is a likely outcome, with larger groups leveraging their scale to divest higher-cost or shorter-life assets. This consolidation trend could reshape the mining landscape as companies seek to optimise their portfolios and capitalise on favourable market conditions.
