The global economy is demonstrating more resilience than previously anticipated, with the World Bank projecting a slight improvement in GDP growth for 2026 compared to earlier forecasts released last June. However, the organisation cautioned that growth remains excessively concentrated in advanced economies and is generally too weak to significantly alleviate extreme poverty.
The World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report indicates that global output growth is expected to decelerate marginally to 2.6% this year, down from 2.7% in 2025, before rebounding slightly to 2.7% in 2027. The 2026 GDP forecast has been revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points since June, while the 2025 growth forecast has increased by 0.4 percentage points. A substantial portion of this upward revision, approximately two-thirds, reflects stronger-than-expected growth in the United States, despite trade disruptions caused by tariffs. The World Bank now projects U.S. GDP growth to reach 2.2% in 2026, compared to 2.1% in 2025.
Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist, noted that while global GDP per person in 2025 was 10% higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic, many developing countries are being left behind. A quarter of these nations are experiencing lower per-capita incomes compared to 2019, particularly impacting the poorest countries. Growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to slow to 4.0% in 2026 from 4.2% in 2025.
China’s growth is also projected to moderate to 4.4% in 2026 from 4.9% in 2025, although these forecasts are up from June due to fiscal stimulus and increased exports to non-U.S. markets. Meanwhile, growth in the Euro zone is anticipated to decrease to 0.9% in 2026 from 1.4% in 2025 as a result of U.S. tariffs but should recover to 1.2% in 2027 because of increased European defence spending.
