Macquarie Capital global strategist Viktor Shvets anticipates continued market volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, social polarisation, and the disruptive influence of technology. Shvets’ flagship global thematic winners’ portfolio has yielded a 42 per cent return, surpassing the MSCI World Index benchmark by 20 per cent. His investment strategy focuses on themes like artificial intelligence, biotechnology, gaming, defence, and alternative energy.
Shvets highlights the potential impact of the 2026 US midterm elections, suggesting that outcomes could significantly influence market dynamics. A shift away from current policies could ease pressure on the US dollar and prompt diversification into European and Chinese equities. He also points to the rapid growth of artificial intelligence and believes the US economy would be near stagnation without the growth created by investing in AI infrastructure.
While acknowledging the transformative potential of AI, Shvets cautions about an emerging AI bubble. He compares the current situation to the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s, noting the high capital spending, speculation, and interconnectedness of AI companies. He suggests the AI bubble may still have a few years before it bursts.
Despite the risks, Shvets remains optimistic about stock picking, emphasising that strong management decisions can drive significant market cap growth. Shvets believes that despite current instability, select companies will continue to thrive, offering opportunities for investors who can identify and capitalize on their potential. Macquarie Group is a diversified financial group providing clients with asset management and finance, banking, advisory and risk and capital solutions across debt, equity, and commodities. Macquarie employs more than 20,500 people in 34 markets.
