The upcoming US jobs report faces unusual uncertainty due to the recent government shutdown. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimate that non-farm payrolls likely increased by 50,000 in November. The unemployment rate is projected to reach 4.5 per cent, continuing its upward trend to the highest level since 2021. The report will provide insights into the current state of the US labour market and influence future interest rate decisions.
Normally, the jobs report offers a clear picture of employment trends. However, the shutdown has introduced quirks. The Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) extended the data collection period to ensure adequate data gathering. Key statistics, including the unemployment rate, which are informed by the monthly survey of households, will be included.
Unfortunately, the BLS could not retroactively collect household data for October because of the shutdown. As a result, the October statistics will not be published. The agency had cancelled the October jobs report last month, stating that it would release those payroll figures alongside the November data. Because businesses keep records and report payroll data electronically, the BLS was able to collect payroll numbers.
The Bureau of Labour Statistics is a US government agency responsible for tracking employment, unemployment, and other key economic indicators. The data is scheduled for release at 12.30am AEDT on Wednesday.
