Wall Street analysts anticipate the S&P 500 will approach 8000 points in the coming year. According to FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters, the consensus points to a closing price of 7968.78 within 12 months. This bottom-up target price is derived from aggregating the median target price estimates for all companies within the index, as submitted by industry analysts. FactSet delivers comprehensive financial data and analytics to investment professionals. The company’s services include data on global markets, company financials, and economic analysis.
As of December 11, the bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 stood at 7968.78, reflecting a 15.5 per cent increase above the then-current closing price of 6901.00. Butters noted a historical trend of industry analysts overestimating the index’s closing price at the beginning of the year. However, he pointed out an exception in 2025, where analysts underestimated the index’s performance.
Looking back to the end of last year, specifically December 31, 2024, the bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 was 6728.40. Considering the closing price of 6901.00 as of December 11, analysts had underestimated the index’s price by 2.5 per cent at the start of 2025. This recent underestimation contrasts with the longer-term tendency to overestimate.
At the sector level, the information technology sector is projected to experience the most significant price surge in 2026, with an anticipated increase of 19.8 per cent. Conversely, the financials sector is expected to see the smallest price increase, estimated at 8.3 per cent. These projections are based on the difference between the bottom-up target price and the current closing price for each sector.
