ANZ anticipates Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October to register a 0.2 per cent increase, resulting in an annual inflation rate of approximately 3.3 per cent. The bank characterises this as a moderate decrease from September’s full monthly CPI result of 3.5 per cent. Senior economist Adelaide Timbrell stated that ANZ’s estimate for the trimmed mean is between 2.7 per cent and 2.9 per cent, compared to September’s 2.8 per cent.
Timbrell highlighted that a trimmed mean exceeding 3.1 per cent would represent a notable upside surprise, while a figure below 2.6 per cent would be seen as a weaker result. However, she anticipates the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to give limited consideration to the October CPI data during its December meeting unless there is a significant shift in inflation trends.
“The RBA Board is unlikely to put much weight on the October CPI result when considering policy rates … unless there is an unambiguously material change in the flow of inflation. But that is unlikely,” Timbrell said. These statements indicate that while the CPI data is important, a single month’s figures are unlikely to sway the RBA’s monetary policy decisions without a clear and sustained trend.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is the nation’s central bank. It is responsible for maintaining financial stability and promoting sustainable economic growth through monetary policy and other means. ANZ is one of Australia’s largest banks, providing a range of financial services to individuals and businesses.
