Macquarie analysts believe the market’s sharp response to Aristocrat Leisure’s FY25 result presents a buying opportunity, characterising it as “spooky but overdone.” Despite trimming earnings per share forecasts by 2 per cent through FY28, Macquarie maintains its $75 target price for Aristocrat. Aristocrat Leisure is a global gaming content and technology company, providing a range of products and services including electronic gaming machines, casino management systems, and online social games. The company operates in markets around the world.
Macquarie forecasts a net profit of $1.68 billion for 2026, an 8 per cent increase year-on-year, albeit 2 per cent below previous forecasts. The firm highlights the ongoing strength of Aristocrat’s gaming division, projecting 6 per cent EBIT growth driven by market share gains in both Gaming Operations and outright sales. The Interactive division is expected to reach an inflection point in FY26, supported by factors such as expanded U.S. market access.
Several catalysts are expected to contribute to the Interactive division’s growth, including the launch of on-premise mobile gaming with the Chickasaw Nation and the introduction of new iGaming content such as Lightning Link. Macquarie values Aristocrat at 27 times forward earnings, representing a 30 per cent premium to the ASX300 Industrials.
According to Macquarie, the current stock price, trading at 21 times forward earnings, is undervalued considering the forecast EPS growth of 12 per cent annually through FY28 and the anticipated return to a net cash position by FY27. The firm’s analysis suggests that Aristocrat Leisure remains a strong investment prospect.
