A recent report from OPEC indicates a minor surplus in the global oil market for 2026. This projection reflects anticipated increases in production from both OPEC+ nations and other oil-producing regions. The shift marks a revision from earlier OPEC forecasts, which had predicted a deficit in the market.
The OPEC+ group, which includes the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and other allied producers, is expected to halt production increases in the first quarter of 2026. This decision follows widespread predictions of potential oversupply in the global market. According to the monthly report, OPEC+ production in October reached 43.02 million barrels per day.
That figure represents a decrease of 73,000 barrels per day compared to September, despite an agreement to increase output for the month. The decline was primarily driven by reduced production in Kazakhstan. Expected demand for OPEC+ crude in 2026 is projected to be 43.0 million barrels per day.
Based on these figures, if OPEC+ maintains its October production rate, the global oil market is expected to experience a slight surplus of approximately 20,000 barrels per day. This contrasts with previous reports that had suggested deficits of 50,000 bpd and 700,000 bpd in earlier projections, influencing decisions around production increases.
