The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to maintain the cash rate at 3.60 per cent next week. This decision comes as policymakers monitor a tight labour market and await more definitive indications of easing inflation. Australia’s monthly consumer price index showed an increase of 3.0 per cent in August compared to the previous year, slightly up from 2.8 per cent in July.
All 39 economists surveyed between September 22 and 25 unanimously predict the RBA will hold the official cash rate steady at 3.60 per cent following the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on September 30. The consensus for a year-end rate of 3.35 per cent remains largely unchanged, although a few economists have adjusted their forecasts for a rate cut in November. Major banks such as ANZ, CBA, and Westpac are projecting a 25-basis point rate cut in November, while NAB anticipates rates will remain at 3.60 per cent until May.
Looking further ahead, a majority of respondents, specifically 32 out of 39, foresee a 0.25 percentage point cut to 3.35 per cent by the end of 2025. Conversely, seven respondents predict no change, an increase from just one in the August poll. Among the 38 respondents with a long-term outlook, 23 anticipate an additional rate cut in the first quarter of 2026, bringing the rate to 3.10 per cent. Meanwhile, 13 project rates will remain at 3.35 per cent by the end of March, and two foresee rates staying at 3.60 per cent.
