AUD/USD: 0.9060EUR/USD: 1.3670The dollar has been fairly flat against the Euro today, with the latter unable to take further advantage of Friday's poor US jobs data, while other currencies, particularly the Yen, continue to make good ground. Eur/Jpy took a beating, down from 142.30 to 140.50.
Focus will now turn towards to today’s December US Retail Sales (exp +0.1%), which some analysts suggest could come in below expectations and could put further pressure on the dollar. Also worth watching today will be comments from the Fed's Plosser and Fisher with regards to tapering. Two Fed hawks, Bullard and Lacker, have already tried to talk down the significance of the NFP disappointment and today’s comments will be closely monitored.
Technically things are pretty much unchanged. Today’s high has been 1.3685 and if we can crack that, there will be sellers at 1.3700, and then 1.3720 (50% pivot of 1.3892/1.3548). I am not sure that we are heading above here today, but if wrong the next port of call would be 1.3760 (61.8%) and then 1.3810 (76.4%).
A return to the downside would see some support at the day’s low at 1.3638, which is where the 200 HMA currently sits, a break of which would head back towards 1.3600 (weekly Tenkan/pivot) and possibly to 1.3575, where the medium term rising trend support now lies. Below this would head back towards further decent support at 1.3560 (daily cloud), 1.3545/25 area (100 DMA, 61.8% of 1.3294/1.3892,) and then to 1.3500. Further out, 1.3455 (23.6% of 1.2042/1.3892 & 38.2% of 1.2755/1.3892) and 1.3435 (76.4% of 1.3294/1.3892) will attract.
The outlook is for more choppy trade with a mild bias to the topside, although overall a neutral stance is probably required ahead of the US data. Use 1.36/1.37 as a rough guide, with a chance that we may give 1.3700 a nudge, particularly if the US retail sales are soft. Ahead of that, the EU I/P will be in focus.
Economic data highlights will include:
EU Industrial Production, US Retail Sales
