AUD/USD: 0.8860EUR/USD: 1.3660The dollar has continued to track sideways, but on a firm note, following the FOMC decision to begin tapering in January. Further possible gains were stalled after today’s data showed that US initial jobless claims rose 10k to 379k last week, much higher than the expectation of a fall to 332k. The housing data was also soft, with U.S. home sales at a near one-year low in November.
Liquidity is going to begin to get pretty thin from here on in but today does see the US Q3 GDP result, as well as the EU/UK Consumer Confidence and some other secondary data and could provide some decent volatility late in the session.
From a technical point of view, 1.3650 is still holding up although a break would lead, initially to Fridays spike low at 1.3617, where the next Fibo support also lies (1.3612: 38.2% of 1.3294/1.3810). Below 1.3600 would suggest deeper losses, initially towards 1.3575 and more likely onto the 50% pivot of 1.3294/1.3811 at 1.3550. The dailies and the 4 hour charts are both hinting in this direction, although I suspect it will be slow to unwind and rather choppy in the process.
On the topside, minor resistance arrives at 1.3685 with stronger sellers likely to be found at around 1.3710, which if we see it would I suspect present us with a sell opportunity.
For today use 1.3615/1.3710 as a guide, but I would be square well before the weekend and would not be involved again until the New Year.
That is all from me for 2013. Thanks to all of you who read my daily rant. I hope to see you in 2014 when we will be providing an enhanced service and an upgrade site with a greater depth of information. Have a happy Christmas and safe driving!
Economic data highlights will include:
German/EU Consumer Confidence, PPI, US GDP, Personal Consumption/Expenditure
