AUD/USD: 0.9171EUR/USD: 1.3550The Euro finished the week strongly, back above 1.3500 after much stronger than expected IFO business sentiment survey underpinned it, and came on the back of the German ZEW investor sentiment survey earlier in the week, which resulted in a 4 year high.
The IFO was at the highest level since April 2012 at 109.3 (exp 107.7), ensuring a positive end to the week for the Euro which was also given a hand by ECB president Mario who played down the chances of negative interest rates in the EU. German Q3 GDP came in, as expected, at +0.3%.
This week sees a whole swathe of data, particularly, early in the week from the US, which will be on holiday from Thursday for Thanksgiving.
Technically, the Euro appears to be on slightly more positive ground at the start of the coming week and certainly the daily DXY does appear to be rolling over, suggesting that the dollar is going to have a tough time in making further gains in the next few days, particularly if the upcoming US data is unable to show any sign of any pick-up in economic momentum.
The Euro is still trading below last week's 1.3578 peak and this will prove tough to break. Ahead of that the Euro has closed up against the daily Kijun and the weekly Tenkan which both lie at 1.3560 and will be a hurdle, although it finished the week back above the daily cloud, at 1.3530, which should now provide the initial support. Beyond 1.3580 will see an acceleration towards 1.3600 and probably to 1.3627 (61.8% of 1.3832/1.3294), where the descending trend resistance also lies. A break of that will see further progress towards 1.3710 (76.4%). This may be a step too far for now, although the 4 hour and the daily momentum indicators have both turned a little higher and do look positive for some potential gains for the Euro, which looks as though it will receive further support from bids in Eur/Jpy which appears headed for 138.50 area.
On the downside, back below 1.3530, bids would appear at 1.3510 and then at 1.3496(38.2% of 1.3398/1.3557). Below here heads back towards 1.3460 (61.8%) but looks a little unlikely on Monday.
Economic data highlights will include:
M: US Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index
T: US Housing Starts, Building Permits, Case Schiller House Price Index, Consumer Confidence
W: US Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
T: US Thanksgiving Day, German Unemployment, CPI, EU Business Climate, Private Loans, Consumer/Industrial Confidence.
F: German Retail Sales, EU CPI, Unemployment
