AUD/USD: 0.9230EUR/USD: 1.3480Glen Stevens duly stuck the boot into the Aud overnight, stating that he was open-mined on intervening for a lower AUD. BHP’s announcement of a 25% cut to its 2014 Capital expenditure did not help either, coming on the back of the previous days statements from Caterpillar about its dismal quarterly sales figures in Asia/Pacific.
I suspect the RBA are waiting for tapering to begin in the US, at which point they will also intervene in the Aud and the double whammy will get it back to roughly where they would like it...a lot nearer 0.8000 than 0.9000!! That could take months, as the Fed is not in any hurry at all to taper.
In the meantime, I suspect 0.9200 will hold it today - at least during Asia and early Europe - although a break and weekly close below 0.9200 would be rather ominous for further losses towards 0.9000. Minor support lies at 0.9160 and then at 0.9110 with stronger support at 0.9095 (76.4% of 0.8892/0.9757).
Bounces look like sell opportunities, and the points to watch are at 0.9255, 0.9290 and 0.9320, which I don't think we are likely to see today.
Use 0.9200/0.0955 as a guide with a reference to sell into strength, looking for lower levels next week.
