$US makes mild gains against the Jpy, but is otherwise on hold ahead of today's NFP.

Foreign Exchange


AUD/USD:  0.9655
EUR/USD:  1.3675

The market has more or less gone into limbo as it awaits the delayed September US Unemployment/NFP data later on in today's upcoming NY session. Expectations are for a rise of 180K and a headline rate of 7.3% but the US governments closure is anticipated to have inflicted enough damage to the economy that the general conclusion is that the Fed will delay plans to begin tapering bond buying for several months. Whereas previously the Fed was considered likely to pull the trigger in December, the market is now looking at March, and if the data remains soft, with the extremely dovish Janet Yellen taking over at the Fed in January, it may not happen at all in 2014, which would keep the dollar under longer term pressure. On the other hand an improvement in the US data could bring about a more hawkish tone from the Fed, which coupled with the ongoing weakness in the EU economy, would see a return to dollar strength. The market is very unsure and so all up a pretty neutral medium term stance is probably best.
 
Nearer home, the Euro has traded a very tight range today and is unchanged from its opening levels, making for a very tedious day in the life of a FX trader!
 
The technical points therefore remain unchanged and technically, 1.3710 (1 Feb high and base of the monthly cloud) remains the first major level to watch and will be strong. Beyond there would see further sellers at 1.3760 (minor) and 1.3825 (61.8% of 1.4939/1.2041).
 
On the downside, 1.3650 held through today's session and will again be the first support, followed by 1.3600 and then 1.3560 (23.6% of 1.3104/1.3704).
 
The 4 hour momentum indicators are overbought and are pointing mildly lower as they unwind although the dailies continue to pick up some positive momentum and do look as though we are going to give the 1.3710 area a good test in the days to come.
 
As for today, there is little else out apart from the US Jobs numbers, so until then nothing is likely to happen, after which go with the flow!. Technically, buying dips looks to be the way of it. Good luck.
 
Economic data highlights will include:
 
US Unemployment/NFP

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