AUD/USD: 0.9140EUR/USD: 1.3300The US$ is mildly stronger today after pretty much a news-free session, as the market increases its focus on whether the Fed will begin to withdraw its monthly injection of $85 bio into the US economy, as soon as September.
For its part, the Euro drifted down to 1.3277 on concerns that Greece continues to struggle to dig itself out of the mire, before recovering to sit just above 1.3300 in very lacklustre trade, with little economic data to provide any guidance. That could change today, with the German/EU ZEW survey, German CPI and the US retail sales due to be released.
There has not been too much change from a technical point of view, although the recent uptrend support has now been broken, which has put a bit of a dent into the positive momentum for the Euro, and it could be that we have a near term top in place at 1.3400.
The 4 hour indicators are now pointing a bit lower and the dailies seem to be running out of steam as well and thus it appears that selling interest into Euro strength could increase if we approach the recent highs. With the Euro only 20 points lower than the weekly close though, the points to watch remain largely unchanged. On the downside, below today's low, would suggest a run to 1.3245 Fibo support (23.6% of 1.2754/1.3400) and under 1.3200 would see a decline to 1.3155 (38.2%) but looks unlikely for the time being.
If the Euro can overcome short term resistance, now at 1.3340 and at 1.3380, it will head to 1.3400 (200 WMA) where decent sellers will be seen, but beyond which it will run into resistance at 1.3415 (19 June high) and at 1.3430 (100 Month MA). Above there, which looks a little unlikely for the time being, would trigger plenty of stops towards 1.3477 (76.4% of 1.3710/1.2753) and then there is not a whole lot to stop it heading back to 1.3710 (1 Feb. high).
Thus, I suspect that today will see further sellers of the Euro in to strength and that the eventual push may be to slightly lower ground, but without going anywhere too far. I would therefore suspect that 1.3250/1.3350 could cover it today, with a mild bias to selling rallies and joining the plethora of stops placed above 1.3430.
Economic data highlights will include:
German CPI, EU/German ZEW, EU Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, Business Inventories
