AUD/USD: 0.8985EUR/USD: 1.3305The dollar has remained under pressure today as the ongoing effects of Friday's lower than expected US jobs data continue to dominate trade. The diminishing expectations of any change to the Fed's monetary policy or any tapering of the bond buying programme, following the NFP, has enabled the Euro to drift a little higher today, finally overcoming the sellers at 1.3300, reaching a peak of 1.3322, and closing the NY session just below this level. This came about, despite some talk from a couple of Fed members that tapering could begin in September - or may be not - very confusing!
Also underpinning the Euro today was data from Germany, showing that factory orders rose 3.8% m/m in June, and a report from the IMF, suggesting that the growth outlook for Germany for 2014 is improving.
Technically, the Euro, having taken out the sellers at 1.3300, is now pushing on to the descending trend resistance, currently at 1.3350. A break of this would see a run towards 1.3405 (200 Week MA) and then the 1.3415 (19th June high). Further offers would arrive at 1.3430 (100 Month MA) and thus the 1.3400/30 area should be pretty strong at first attempt.
On the downside, today’s low has been 1.3245, slightly improved on yesterday's 1.3232. The shorter term indicators are still pointing mildly higher, and I would be a little doubtful of seeing too much weakness today, but if wrong, below 1.3230 would probably see a decline to 1.32 and then to Fridays 1.3185 low. Further out 1.3120 (38.2% of 102752/1.3344) or even 1.3050 (50%) are potential targets.
Given the comparative lack of data due out today, I would imagine that we are in for another fairly tight session, not too far removed from 1.3300/50 area.
Economic data highlights will include:
German Industrial Production
