US$ under pressure, not helped by mixed data and a dovish WSJ article

AUD/USD:  0.9235
EUR/USD:  1.3280

The Euro chopped around either side of 1.3200 for the first half of the session, but headed higher after the mixed US data put some pressure on the dollar and further pressure emerged after the release of a WSJ article suggesting that there will be no change to the stimulus programme at next week's FOMC meeting. This sent the Euro up through the 1.3255 technical resistance (76.4% of 1.3415/1.2753). to a high of 1.3295 and it is now consolidating just below at 1.3280.
 
Earlier in the session the German IFO improved to 110.1, - better than expectations -while the US data was mixed, with the initial jobless claims climbing by 7k to 343k, while Durable Goods were better than expected and rose by 4.2% in June although shipments of capital goods fell 0.9 %
 
Technically, the Euro has had a bullish outside day and the way looks open for further gains to 1.3300 and possibly higher, towards the downtrend resistance now at around 1.3350, which comes ahead of the 1.3415, 19 June high.
 
On the downside, 1.3255 is now the initial support, a break of which would head back to rising trend support, currently at 1.3180, and then the session low at 1.3165 (formerly 61.8% resistance of the move from 1.3415/1.2753).
 
Although the Euro did head a little lower early in the session to 1.3165, the short term momentum indicators have now turned to point a bit higher and it appears that the downside today may be somewhat limited. I suspect that we are in for a session of trading above 1.3220 as we look for a more sustained test of 1.3300. However, the 4 hour MACD's are beginning to show signs of bearish divergence, so we need to be aware of possible reversals, but until we see a sustained break of the rising trend support, just below 1.3200, it appears that buying dips is still the way to go.
 
There is no data out of Europe today and it may well be a quiet session until the US get in, when the Rts/Michigan Consumer Sentiment index will be the driver.
 
Look for a session of 1.3220/1.3300, with the chance of a possible test of the topside towards 1.3350.
 
Economic data highlights will include:
 
Rts/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.