AUD/USD: 0.9240EUR/USD: 1.3125Although the market was highly volatile after Ben Bernanke gave his testimony to Congress, indicating that the timeline for ending the economic stimulus program this year needs to remain flexible, the Euro has ended up going nowhere too far from this time yesterday. Having traded up to 1.3177 it is actually a little lower now, but has really spent the session gyrating between the 50%-61.8% move from 1.3415/1.2753, these being 1.3082/1.3161.
Bernanke's outlook for the economy was backed up by the release of the Beige Book, which suggested that growth is, at best, moderate and it looks as though we are now going to spend more time within the 1.30/1.32 range. Bernanke will be speaking again today, but this is likely to be more of the same, and given that the 4 hour charts look as though they want to roll a little lower, I don't think we should expect anything too different from yesterday's range for the coming session, although there is more Bernanke, as well as a mix of other data, which could provide some direction.
The points to watch therefore remain pretty much the same as yesterday.
On the downside, the Euro fell to meet out first support at 1.3085 (100 Hour MA), bouncing off a 1.3082 low, so this currently remains intact. A break would head towards 1.3035 and then back to 1.300, below which, minor Fibo support/200 H MA lies at 1.2980.
In the topside, we need a break of the immediate resistance at the session high (1.3177) to allow for a run to last week’s top at 1.3205, above which would suggest 1.3255 (76.4%). Beyond this, there is downtrend resistance at 1.3360, which in turn comes ahead of the 1.3415, 19 June high.
I think we should look for more of the same today and for the time being it may be wise to use 1.3085/1.3175 as a guide. The short term charts do hint mildly lower but the dailies still retain some positive momentum, so all up a choppy session looks likely, probably for the next several days
Economic data highlights will include:
EU Current Account, US Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Mfg Index, Bernanke testimony to Congress
