EUR/USD: 1.3315AUD/USD: 0.9455The Aud is actually not too far removed from this time yesterday having regained earlier losses after it fell sharply to the base of the channel, hitting 0.9325 in Europe following an earlier pessimistic economic outlook on the Australian economy from Goldman's. Further pressure came from selling of Aud in the crosses. Aud/Jpy today fell another 3.5% but managed to hold onto 90.00. Currently trading at 90.60, there will be further pressure heaped on the Aud should we see a break of the support in the cross, with plenty of SL placed below 90.00. All the European currencies also made further strong gains against the Aud reaching levels not seen in over 2 years. Eur/Aud even reached the 1.4200 target that we first spotted on 27 March when the cross was at 1.2700! Shame we did not have a decent sized position on it!
The Aud actually looks a little positive to me for the next 24 hours, and after the strong bounce, it may have some positive momentum to carry it on to 0.9480 and possibly even back to levels above 0.9500. There is plenty of room for a correction and the first significant Fibo level is not to be seen until 0.9610 (23.6% of 1.0380/0.9325).
Higher levels are really only selling opportunities though and on the downside, the greater trend still remains intact. Back below 0.9400 would see a run towards 0.9375, ahead of the overnight low 0.9325. If we do head below here, which I don't expect today, then look for a run below 0.9300 to minor support at 0.9270 and then the major Fibo support at 0.9150 (38.2% of 0.6002/1.1082). For the time being, use the channel as a guide, but for the next 24 hours I suspect buying dips is the way to go looking for a run towards 0.9500. If we get to the top end of the channel, look for levels to sell into it for the next leg lower.
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