AUD/USD: 1.0085The Aud looked OK after the better than expected domestic jobs data, but that all changed dramatically once NY got hold of it and after the US jobless claims it began to head lower, accelerating sharply once the Feds Plosser said that he would like the Fed to slow QE as soon as the next FOMC meeting, and then falling like a stone once Usd/Jpy broke 100.00.
The range trade of recent month's looks like it is finally finished and the talk is becoming increasingly bearish for the Aud, which will please the RBA and exporter community and rallies towards 1.0150 will now provide selling opportunities.
I would not get overly bearish down here today though, and have actually squared up my own shorts as I suspect there will be some good bids ahead of parity which will slow the downside potential. Hopefully there will be better levels to sell into and given that the 4 hour charts are still showing some bearish divergence, there could be a bit of a bounce towards the previous resistance at 1.0100 and if we get very lucky up to 1.0150. That looks a little unlikely in the short term, but leaving sell levels into strength, still appears the way to go.
On the downside, if we do break parity, then I am looking for a move to the long term "E leg" triangle target at around 0.9850. That may be a little way off, but when the Aud decides that it wants to head lower, it does not hang about, so don't try to pick a level to buy it, looking for a bounce, or you will get steam-rollered by the longs trying to head for the exit.
Today sees the RBA's MPC statement, which is likely to continue the dovish tone and will keep the Aud under pressure, but I would be surprised to see us make definitive new lows, at least in Asia. Once NY get it to themselves in thin, Friday conditions, it could be a different matter....TGIF! Have a good w/e.
Economic data highlights will include:
RBA MPC statement
