EUR/USD: 1.3070 The Euro has remained within its recent range following the early release of the FOMC minutes after they were inadvertently sent early to some recipients who normally receive them shortly after their usual release time. The minutes revealed that some of the Fed's board members felt that employment conditions were improving and that expectations were that the Fed will taper its bond buying programmme with the possibility that it will cease altogether by the end of the year.
The main action was to see further selling of the Yen, with the Euro receiving support through fresh purchases of Eur/Jpy which reached a high, so far of 130.50.
Aside from the minutes, it has again been a reasonably quiet session, and the Euro, having made an earlier attempt to break above the resistance at 1.3112, reaching 1.3121, currently remains back below 1.3100 and looks set to do so for the coming session.
There is not too much economic data out today and it may be that we actually look to drift a little lower, given that the 4 hour indicators appear to be rolling over, which may renew the pressure on the downside. Factors such as the implications of the Cyprus bailout, the fiscal concerns in Portugal and Spain and political uncertainty in Italy will continue to hamper the Euro and will all feature heavily in today's ECB Monthly report.
Technically, 1.3112 (38.2% of 1.3710/1.2745) remains a hurdle, although the Euro did briefly reach 1.3121 today, pushed higher as Eur/Jpy reached 130.50. A break would run into further headwinds at the 100 DMA (1.3130), 1.3162(28 Feb high) , 1.3200 and then at 1.3226 (50% Fibo).
Support currently remains intact at 1.3050, with Eur/Jpy purchases ensuring that the downside remains well protected above 1.3020 and then 1.3000. Below this would take us back to 1.2970 and then to 1.2925 (50% of 1.2745/1.3100) although these sort of levels look doubtful in the short term.
Today's Jobless Claims will be closely watched following last week's NFP data, but that aside there is little data to give the market too much direction unless the ECB Report springs a surprise, but they are unlikely to be very bullish and this could see a drift to slightly lower levels. For the time being use 1.300/1.31 as a guide
Economic data highlights will include:
EU Meeting, German CPI, ECB Monthly Report, US Jobless Claims
