EUR/USD: 1.3570There really is not too much to add to yesterdays report as the market waits for the Non Farm Payrolls later in the session. The market is expecting a number of 160K and an unchanged headline unemployment number of 7.8% . The trading range has been fairly tight and all the levels are unchanged from yesterday after the Euro recovered from its session lows at 1.3540. German retail sales fell by more than expected by -1.7% in December, although the impact on the Euro was limited and offset by the German unemployment data, which dropped to 6.8% in January.
Against the dollar, then next upside target is still at 1.3600 and it seems unlikely that this will be broken ahead of the NFP, although if the Euro does start to move up, there will be sellers 1.3614 (18 Nov ’11 high) and then at 1.3640 (15 Nov 11 high). Above that would see acceleration towards 1.3700, and the 61.8% Fibo target at 1.3820 of the large move down from 1.4939 to 1.2042. The momentum on the dailies is still pointing higher and it would appear that we have some upside ahead of us in the next few weeks although the 4 hour charts are now looking as though they are trying to roll over and turn a little lower, so some caution is warranted but buying dips appears to remain the favoured strategy.
Below today's session low at 1.3540, the downside now sees short term support at 1.3520 ahead of 1.3500 and then 1.3485. Below that would head back down to 1.3400 and then to 1.3350 and 1.3320.
Direction depends on the NFP although before then the China Mfg PMI and EU PMI data will be released and may cause a bit of volatility, but really before the US Jobs data it all looks pretty much rangebound below 1.3600,
Economic data highlights will include:
EU Markit Mfg PMI, EU CPI, Unemployment, US ISM Mfg PMI, Unemployment / NFP
