EUR/USD: 1.3240Today has seen the Euro act in choppy fashion but really going nowhere too far and currently sits in roughly the middle of the sessions range.
Despite slightly better US data that saw the US GDP rise by 3.1%, up from the previous 2.7% and existing home sales that rose at their fastest pace in three years, the fiscal cliff issue still hangs over th market, which is reluctant to take on risk positions until some form of agreement is reached.
Technically then, little has changed. Yesterdays high at 1.3307 remains the first hurdle and there are now plenty of sellers lined up at 1.3300. Above this the 27 March high at 1.3385 will provide some resistance and if/when this is taken out, the 24 Feb high at 1.3486 will attract. Given that the 4 hour oscillators continue to unwind and head a little lower, I am not sure that there will be too much upside in the coming session and some more choppy trade with a downside bias may well be the theme of the day. Most players are probably now sidelined and any trade should be on a very short term basis only, with a view to be square by the end of the day.
Rising trendline support remains nearby and is likely to see buyers at around 1.3220. Below that, the session low at 1.3187 will provide support, ahead of Fibo bids that should be seen at 1.3165 (23.6% of 1.2660/1.3307). If we get below 1.3120 again, which acted as resistance on the way up, then I suspect a medium term top is in place, but right now, it looks a little unlikely...but beware a rush for the exit if the market decides that it has had enough of waiting for a positive outcome on the fiscal cliff negotiations.
Overall it looks doubtful that we will see anything too directional and the general theme will be one of position squaring which could see the odd unexplained spike in either direction.
That's about it for the Year, so I hope everyone has a good Christmas, - if the world has not ended by then -, and hope that we are all still here, for what I suspect is going to be a good trading year in 2013!.
