EUR/USD: 1.2825The Euro, having fallen sharply when the EC meeting failed to come up with an agreement over the Greek bailout package, then spent much of the session recovering its losses after Angela Merkel said she saw chances of a deal at another meeting of European finance ministers on Monday.
So we are back above 1.2800 with the Euro helped along from good buying in EUR/JPY, which today hit a 6 month high at 105.84. The Euro continues to look bid, but with the US market closed for Thanksgiving, it may well be that interest becomes pretty thin as the session progresses and we end up not going to far from here, and may possibly hang around 1.2800 until the EC meeting resumes on Monday.
Elsewhere today, risk sentiment was dented a little after the weekly US jobless numbers stayed above 400k for the second week in a row, while the Rts/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was softer than expected (84.5), at 82.7.
Technically there is very little change. If we do head a bit higher the points to watch remain at 1.2840 (38.2% of 1.3171/1.2660), where the descending trendline is now crossing and currently sits at 1.2838. There will be some stops above this, and if it breaks, may see some acceleration on towards 1.2900 (50% of 1.3139/1.2660), with the next resistance to be found at 1.2954 (61.8%). I am not sure that the interest will be there today though, to propel the Euro too much higher, if at all.
On the downside, today’s session low has been the spike to 1.2735, a break of which would head towards the rising trendline support at 1.2720 and then to Fridays low at 1.2690. Below this would suggest a move to last week’s base at 1.2660 and then towards the 100 DMA, now at 1.2637. Before 1.2735, minor bids would be seen at 1.2800 and 1.2770.
For the time being, the indicators are a little mixed, but overall it looks as though it maybe the topside that comes under some pressure. A test of the 1.2840 level may well be on the cards, with the risk assets getting a bit of a lift from the ceasefire in the Middle East, but with the US market now more or less finished until Monday, I would not expect too much action.
Later on we get to see the China and EU PMI data which may provide some interest but in the meantime look for 1.2800/40 to cover it, with the chance of a squeeze towards 1.2870 later if some stops get triggered.
