EUR/USD: 1.2945Today has been pretty much a non event with regards to the Euro, so given that it is Friday and that it is pretty much unchanged again I won't bother to go on.
Having squeezed slowly higher to 1.3020, it turned around after a headline stating that an ally of the Greek coalition government will vote against labor reforms and that they have asked the Troika to have them removed. The Euro drifted back off again to currently sit at the session lows, but for the time being, within the parameters that we have been watching all week.
The Euro is still holding on to 1.2945 (61.8% of 1.2825/1.3139), although this looks very fragile and a decline below this would see a drift toward the rising trendline, currently at 1.2907 and 1.2900 (76.4%). This should therefore prove strong support at the first attempt but a break would take us to the 200DMA, now at 1.2832, which has held pretty well on previous attempts, above the 1 Oct low at 1.2802.
The topside will see sellers at 1.3000, and back above here towards the recent session highs at 1.3022 and then at 1.3074. The long term descending trendline now lies at 1.3110 and should prove strong, but a break would see the 17 Oct, 1.3140 high, which is also 38.2% of 1.4939/1.2042. Above this would see a return towards the 17 Sept 1.3171 high and then to 1.3266,1.3368 and 1.3480, all of which acted as tops between February and April, although it looks unlikely that they will come under pressure this week.
Today's action will be driven late on by the US GDP. Until then I suspect it will be a slow drift into the weekend, with perhaps a mild bias to the downside, but ultimately going nowhere fast.
Once again, use 1.2900/1.3000 as a guide, but really not expecting a great deal.
