EUR/USD: 1.2900It has been a pretty quiet session today with little action ahead of the ECB meeting later on, where no change is expected but where the press conference will be keenly watched.
Of note, the US ADP employment report showed a better than expected +162K in September, which comes in ahead of Fridays US employment/NFP data. The US services sector data also grew in September and kept a firm note to the dollar although it has remained in a tight range, with Spain and Greece remaining in focus, and keeping a cap on the Euro.
From a technical perspective, nothing has changed from yesterday as keen be seen by the 24 hour 60 point range.
The shorter term charts have become completely flat, offering no hint one way or the other, while the dailies are still correcting their overbought status, following the recent rally.
Above today's 1.2936 high lies the previous top at 1.2967 and then the 50% pivot of 1.3171/1.2802 is at 1.2986, with the 61.8% Fibo target at 1.3029.
Below today's base at 1.2875, further bids will again be found at 1.2800 and below there at 1.2742, (38.2% of 1.2042/1.3171 ).
One has to remain completely neutral for the time being, and while a cap will remain on the Euro for all sorts of reasons, the potential for a Spanish bailout will see it falling too far either, so we are in a no-man's-land, at least until the ECB meeting and more likely until the NFP data tomorrow. A bailout for Spain does not look like occurring this week and therefore the pressure looks as though it may remain on the downside, without going anywhere too far, and I would tend to use 1.2850/1.2950 as a guide until we see something to change the status quo.
Aside from the ECB meeting, we get the US Jobless Claims and Factory orders later on in the session.
