EUR/USD: 1.2325 Having received an early boost in Europe from the better than expected GDP data from both Germany (+0.3%) and France (0%) , it was unable to carry on when the overall EU data ( -0.2%) was released. This was compounded by the weaker than expected ZEW survey, and then later in the session the US Retail Sales gave the Dollar a boost, coming in much stronger than expected at +0.8% (exp 0.3%).
All of this has ended up leaving the Euro pretty much in limbo, and having reached a session high of 1.2385, it has since retreated and is now unchanged on this time yesterday.
So, technically nothing has changed and it looks to be pretty quiet ahead.
Points to watch are at,- on the topside, today's high is at 1.2285 (1.2289 = 50% of 1.2742/1.2042) and we still need a sustained move above 1.2363 (61.8% of 1.2442/1.2240) to progress towards 1.2400 and then the recent 12442 high. Above this sees 1.2472 is 61.8% of 1.2742/1.2042, the neckline resistance currently at 1.2510, and then 1.2574 (76.4%).
On the downside -, Today's low at 1.2316 is followed by 1.2240 (Friday low), 1.2225 (minor channel base), 1.2133 (2 August low) and then at 1.2042 (24 July low).
Look for a very quiet and uninspiring session today. The indicators have all gone completely flat and another session of 1.23/1.24 looks most likely right now. There is no data of importance out of Europe, but we do get the US CPI later which might provide some interest. With much of Europe closed for Assumption Day, I would be looking for something else to do .
