EUR/USD: 1.3315The Euro is pretty much unchanged today following a session in which the “Bernanke effect”, comments earlier in the week, has worn off. The session was dominated once again by Europe, and the Euro rose early on, due to the increased hope that a larger firewall will be approved in order to prevent the repeat of the crisis, such as has happened with Greece. That hope was eroded following cautious comments from an ECB board member (Jens Weidmann) about such a rescue fund, and sent the Euro down towards the lows of the day at 1.3275, before it rebounded later in the session. He suggested that no firewall would be big enough to provide a permanent solution to the crisis.
Elsewhere German CPI was as expected, +0.4% for March and US Durable Goods orders rose slightly less than expected at 2.2% (+2.9% expectation.)
Overall it has been a negative day for the equity markets where, in Europe the Dax and CAC40 both finished -1.14% and in the US, the S+P is down 0.65%. The Shanghai Composite should be watched – that finished -2.6% yesterday.
Technically there is not a lot to say about the Euro. It sits in pretty neutral territory and could well just hang about here until the EU Fin Min Meeting on Friday.
The rising trendline support currently at 1.3265 currently holds, and should continue to do so for the next few hours at least. The 4 hour charts are attempting to point a little lower though so a break of this would see a move back into the well established range towards Fibo levels at 1.3200 and 1.3150. That looks unlikely for the coming session. To the topside 1.3385, the weeks high will provide good resistance ahead of 1.3420 and then 1.3485. This equally looks pretty unlikely.
Today use the range of 1.3275/1.3375 as an initial guide. Asia looks more like 1.3300/50.
Later today we have German Employment data, US Initial Jobless Claims and GDP. We also get more Bernanke, which will be watched closely.
