Australian Property Monitors has labeled 2012 as a year of recovery for most Australian markets, with national median house prices forecast to rise between 3 and 5 per cent. After a poor result for the current year, APM believes demand for housing will intensify, especially capital city markets with direct exposure to the resources sector.
And Westpac chief Gail Kelly is also upbeat about the state of the country's property market saying she is confident about the overall health of the housing market, and the bank isn't expecting any significant falls in house prices. Mrs Kelly was responding to a question relating to a report by ratings agency Moody's that states the current prices for Australian houses are not sustainable. Moody's expects mortgage delinquency rates to increase over the next decade.
On the other side of the fence, University of Western Sydney professor Steve Keen has told Fairfax Media he expects home prices to fall between 5 and 10 per cent nationally next year. He says the main force that will drive prices down is the same that caused them to rise - the acceleration of mortgage debt.
And RP Data has compiled a list of the best performing property markets in Australia for 2011. The snapshot includes Point Piper - taking the award for the suburb with the highest median sale price. In contrast, Brewarrina and Millicent had the most affordable median sale prices. The greatest 12 month change was seen in Sandy Point, Gippsland for houses. The greatest five year change was in Rosebery, Darwin, house prices there have jumped 160 per cent.
Taking a closer look at some of the recent Australian Bureau of Statistics data out this past week, and dwelling commencements have dropped 11.5 per cent, seasonally adjusted for the year to September. For the quarter dwelling commencements fell 6.8 per cent, the lowest quarterly result for two years. Seasonally adjusted, the number of dwelling commencements fell in six of the eight states and territories. There's concern the fall could contribute to slowing conditions in the housing sector and that dwelling starts aren't keeping pace with the rate of population growth, exacerbating the housing shortage. Total housing finance by value fell 2.5 per cent seasonally adjusted in October. That's largely unchanged when compared with October last year. And in a separate Australian Bureau of Statistics report, housing finance for owner occupiers fell 1.2 per cent.
