There have been mixed fortunes across the FX spectrum, with EUR/USD losing ground to the dollar, while the pound attempts to push higher once more. Meanwhile, we are looking out for a potential short-term bounce in AUD/USD.
EUR/USD pulls back to Fibonacci supportEUR/USD has finally started turning lower, following a move above the 76.4% retracement of June’s referendum sell-off. So far this morning, we have seen it fall into the 76.4% pullback of last week’s rally.
While we could see a bounce from here, it seems likely that we are seeing a trend change for the short-term, to revert to the bearish trend of recent years. For further confidence of this move, an hourly close below $1.1241 would be a particularly bearish signal.
GBP/USD pushing higher once moreOnce more it is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement that is coming into play, with GBP/USD having pulled back to this level ($1.3027) following a rally above the key $1.3094 swing high.
Given this break higher, it seems likely we will see this pair gain ground once more to continue the consolidation of the past two months. Thus, a bullish view is in place for the short-term, with a move back to $1.3186 likely. This view holds unless we see an hourly close below $1.2978.
Awaiting follow through or deep retracement for AUD/USDAUD/USD saw a strong move lower last week, following the push into a multi-year descending trendline. This points towards the potential for a top in play and as such, further downside seems likely soon enough.
However, last week taught us that this pair is in a somewhat choppy phase, and thus another deep retracement could not only provide us with a nice strong rally, but also another 76.4% pullback to get short once more.
