AUD/USD: 0.7605EUR/USD: 1.1270Friday saw the US$ making a bit of a comeback following on from Thursday’s post-FOMC selloff. The coming two week's will be shortened because of Easter, although there is a bit of data to come ahead of the break. Tomorrow sees the German IFO and ZEW and Thursday the global PMIs and the US Durable Goods Orders. Good Friday will be extremely thin and could therefore be volatile, following the release of the Japanese CPI and then later, the US GDP.
AudUsd headed up to 0.7680 on Friday before the US$ made a partial recovery later in the day that sent the Aud lower to finish the week just above the session lows, at 0.7595.
The coming week will look to speeches from the RBA Governors, Stevens and Edey for direction Expect a concerted attempt to talk the Aud$ lower – which will probably be ignored.
The daily charts still look constructive but are sending out warning signals, and with the 4 hour charts also pointing lower we could be in for a move towards minor support at 0.7580, below which would head towards 0.7543 (23.6% of 0.6826/0.7680) and then to the 200 HMA at 0.7515. Below there, unlikely at this stage, would see a move back below 0.7500 towards 0.7478 (23.6% of 0.6826/0.7680) and then to 0.7460 (38.2% of 0.7108/0.7680).
If we do see another rally, sellers will arrive at 0.7620 and at 0.7650 ahead of the 0.7680 trend high seen on Friday. Above this looks unlikely early in the week, but further gains would head towards 0.7700 and then to 0.7738 (1 July 2015 high). Beyond there would head towards 0.7800, with the next Fibo levels not seen until 0.7845 (38.2% of 0.9504/0.6826 and also 76.4% of 0.8162/0.6826), but which should be very strong, if/when seen.
With little data this week, US$ flows and risk sentiment will drive the direction. It may just be choppy but selling into strength looks to be the play, according to the indicators.
Economic data highlights will include:
M:
T: House Price Index, RBA Speeches: Edey, Stevens
W:
T:
F:
Jim LanglandsFX Charts
