AUD/USD: 0.7360EUR/USD: 1.0960The US$ is weaker on all fronts heading into Friday trade following some soft US data (factory orders, jobless claims and services sector employment) on Thursday, which arrived ahead of today's US Jobs data/NFP. The commodity bloc currencies enjoyed a sold session, helped by firmer commodities – particularly Gold, while stocks have moved mostly sideways, before finishing on a firm note, ahead of the upcoming US data. Before the NFP reading, Australia gets the Retail Sales (Jan) while the UK has the Consumer Inflation Expectation to contend with.
AUDUSD rose to challenge its 3 months highs on Thursday, helped along by higher commodity prices, particularly Gold which traded to a 12 month high, and after having taken out 0.7300 it has not blinked in heading up to a 0.7373 (55 Week MA). We could see some decent movement again today, possibly testing the 0.7385 resistance, following the release of the January Retail Sales (exp +0.4%) although most traders are likely to sit on their hands while waiting for the US Jobs data later in the session.
AUDUSD has so braked just ahead the 4 Dec high at 0.7385, but beyond there could see a squeeze towards 0.7400. Beyond there would allow further gains towards the 11 August 2015 high of 0.7439 and to 0.7450 (23.6% of 0.9504/0.6826), beyond which we could see an approach towards 0.7493 (50% pivot of 0.8162/0.6826) although this is still a long way off at this stage. These levels will be making the RBA feel very uncomfortable, so if we do head higher expect an increase in the negative rhetoric from the various RBA board members and even the chance of an early rate cut, although this will remain to be seen.
A failure here, in the event of some soft Retail Sales figures would find support at 0.7325 and at 0.7300 (both minor) ahead of 0.7260 (200 DMA), 0.7245 (23.6% of 0.6826/0.7373) and 0.7205 (100/200 HMAs).
Waiting for the NFP and going with the flow seems to be the general plan
Economic data highlights will include:
Retail Sales.
Jim LanglandsFX Charts
