AUD/USD: 0.7200EUR/USD: 1.1010Wednesday has been a volatile ride, with a 4% slide in the oil price in European trade causing a selloff in stocks amidst a general souring of risk sentiment, before a strong bounce during the US trade, with both oil and stocks recovering all their losses, to sit pretty much unchanged on the day. The volatility looks set to continue in the medium term and today it will be the turn of the EU CPI and the US Durable Goods to provide the direction. Elsewhere the German Consumer Confidence, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (Jan), US Jobless Claims, and Kansas Fed Mfg Activity are due, along with a speech from the Fed’s Williams. From Australia we get the Q4 Capex figures. Cable will do its own thing on the back of UK political soundbites, but the provisional Q4 GDP are also due.
AudUsd has been volatile on Wednesday, but is now back at 0.7200 after recovering from a selloff to 0.7145 that came about in tandem with the moves in stocks/oil.
Thursday will see the Q4 Capex data although it is not expected to be of any assistance to the Aud$ (exp -3%qq) and it could be a similar sort of session – choppy but without too much direction.
The daily momentum indicators still look constructive, so if the Aud can regain the session high (0.7211) then we could see a move towards the previous session high at 0.7258. Above there could then see a run towards 0.7280 and to 0.7300 although this seems unlikely today. If wrong, look for a retest the 31 Dec high at 0.7327 although I am not sure that we get there in the short term.
On the downside, support will again be seen at 0.7185 (100 HMA), ahead of 0.7155 (200 HMA) and the 0.7145 session low. Below there, look for a run back towards 0.7100, and below that, to the 19 Feb low at 0.7068.
Economic data highlights will include:
Capex.
Jim LanglandsFX Charts
