AUD/USD: 0.7080EUR/USD: 1.0945Oil was where the main interest lay on Thursday as it spiked higher following a headline that OPEC may consider cutting production in an effort to stem the recent falls. It later gave up some of those gains after an OPEC official refuted speculation of any imminent cuts. The dollar was also under pressure after the release of the big miss in the US Durable Goods Orders, suggesting that there is little reason for the Fed to hike rates any time soon. We will get a further indication of this later today with the release of the Q4 US GDP. Also due from the US today will be the Personal Consumption/Expenditure, the Rts/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. Before that, the Asian focus will be on the BOJ Meeting – no change expected – and then from the EU we see the German Retail Sales and the EU CPI. Have a good weekend.
Thursday was a positive session for AUDUSD, reversing an early selloff, following the FOMC/RBNZ interest rate decisions, that saw it reach the low of the day at 0.7007 and it has since seen a steady squeeze higher, culminating in a brief spike to as high as 0.7127, seen after the release of the soft US data. It has since given up some of those gains and late in the US session sits at 0.7075.
The Aud may well trade within Thursday’s range on Friday as there is relatively little local data to move the market. The highlight will be the Private Sector Credit (Dec) although this is not a major market mover and flows will be driven mostly from offshore events, principally by the US GDP. Another soft reading could see another push to the upside for the Aud as a near term Fed rate hike looks increasingly unlikely.
On the topside the immediate targets are at 0.7100 and then 0.7127 (session high) ahead of 0.7135 (61.8% of 0.7327/0.6826) and 0.7208 (76.4%) although I doubt that we head close to here today.
0.7050 and the session low of 0.7007 are the initial support levels to watch. Below 0.7000 would see a return to the rising trend support/200 HMA at around 0.6970, although this is unlikely to be bothered today.
Look for a choppy end to the week without too much direction, with sellers likely to be lining up above 0.7100.
Economic data highlights will include:
Private Sector Credit .
Jim LanglandsFX Charts
