AUD/USD: 0.7335EUR/USD: 1.0870The US Jobs data (5%, NFP+211K) released on Friday ensured some volatile conditions, with the US$ finishing the session mixed, and stocks erasing all of Thursday’s losses. Metals headed higher, on the back of the dollar’s weakness following on from the ECB decision on Thursday, while Oil head back below 40.00pb after OPEC declined to cap production to curb the continuing oversupply. It would appear that trade in the currency markets will be choppy but without too much direction in the week ahead as traders turn their focus towards the December 15/16 FOMC meeting, at which a rate hike looks increasingly locked in. Before then, the highlights this week will be the EU GDP and the US Retail Sales. Also of note will be plenty of data from China, headed by the CPI, Trade Balance and the Retail Sales as well as Interest Rate Decision’s from the BOE, SNB and RBNZ.
AUSUSD was volatile following the release of Friday’s US Non Farm payrolls, spiking in each direction, firstly down to 0.7280 and then to a new 3 month high of 0.7385, before settling the week at 0.7340, to be unchanged on the day.
The coming week will be a busy one for the Aud, with much of the focus being on the Chinese data, which will include the Chinese Trade Balance (Tue), the CPI (Wed) and the Retail Sales on Friday. The November unemployment will be highlight of a busy week of domestic data, which will kick off today with the AIG Construction Index and ANZ Job Ads .
The technical picture remains largely unchanged despite Friday’s move to 0.7385 which took out the previous high of 0.7382 (12 Oct high). This is also 38.2% of 0.8162/0.6900 and will continue to act as good resistance. Beyond there though would put pressure on 0.7400 and possibly allow a move on to 0.7438 (11 Aug high) and the 200 DMA at 0.7455.
Buyers will be seen at 0.7300 and then again at 0.7280. Below this would then allow a move to 0.7265 (200 HMA) and then to 0.7243 (38.2% of 0.7015/0.7385) and to 0.7200 (50%).
The charts remain inconclusive, but the dailies continue to point to a test of the topside, so a run towards 0.7400 would not surprise.
Economic data highlights will include:
M: AIG Construction Index, ANZ Job Ads
T: NAB Business Conditions/Confidence, China Trade Balance
W: WBC Consumer Confidence, Home Loans Investment Lending for Homes, China CPI, PPI, New Loans
T: Consumer Inflation Expectation, Unemployment
F: China Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Urban Investment
Jim LanglandsFX Charts
